Rising seas put 5,500 toxic sites at risk of flooding by 2100
- 3 min. read ▪ Published
5,500 hazardous sites across the U.S. are projected to be at risk of coastal flooding by 2100 if heat-trapping pollution grows unchecked, according to a new study released today by researchers from UC Berkeley, UCLA, and the nonprofit Climate Central.
These sites include clean-up sites as well as facilities handling sewage, toxic waste, oil and gas, and other industrial pollutants, posing serious threats to public health and neighboring communities.
The study not only identifies toxic sites at risk from coastal floods, but also analyzes who lives nearby. The findings reveal that certain communities are more likely to live near at-risk sites. Neighborhoods with one or more of these at-risk facilities, under a high emissions scenario, have higher proportions of renters, households living in poverty, residents who identify as Hispanic, linguistically isolated households, households without vehicles, seniors, and non-voters than neighborhoods without at-risk facilities.
“Flooding from sea level rise is dangerous on its own — but when facilities with hazardous materials are in the path of those floodwaters, the danger multiplies,” said Lara Cushing, associate professor at UCLA’s Fielding School of Public Health. “This analysis makes it clear that these projected dangers are falling disproportionately on poorer communities and communities that have faced discrimination and therefore often lack the resources to prepare for, retreat, or recover from exposure to toxic floodwaters.”
The threat is not evenly distributed across the 23 states with ocean coastlines and Puerto Rico. Seven states account for almost 80% of the hazardous sites at-risk by 2100: Florida, New Jersey, California, Louisiana, New York, Massachusetts, and Texas.
Much of the risk is already locked in due to past emissions. Nearly 3,800 hazardous facilities are projected to face flood risk as soon as 2050. However, moderate cuts to climate pollution could reduce the number of sites at risk by over 300 by the end of the century.
The analysis is based on projections of a flood with a 1% annual chance of occurring, commonly known as a 100-year flood event, under two emissions scenarios: a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and a lower emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). The methodology was co-developed with an advisory committee of community advocates and public health leaders.
“Coastal communities, including underserved groups, that are working to fortify their resilience to climate change need access to critical data and resources to plan for the future,” said Rachel Morello-Frosch, professor at UC Berkeley School of Public Health. She notes that data and resources from FEMA and NOAA are becoming harder to access, impeding these communities’ efforts to adapt.
To help fill this data gap, Climate Central is releasing several public resources in English and Spanish, including:
